This gives us a more realistic and perhaps a little more aligned to the numbers we are seeing. The numbers are 20 and then drop down to 10 and five etc on days. We are hopeful but if you study the trajectory, you will see that we are not going to see zero new cases anytime in the middle of April even with effective reproduction number of 0.90

Hence the message is that we need to be patient and continue to practice the conditions of hand and respiratory hygiene, and maintain safe distance, even as the “lock down” is lifted. A rush at this stage is not warranted.

Download the covid_model.Rmd and run using an Rstudio instance.