and turnover patterns across regions. Our findings of range
change may serve to assist but not determine nature conservation policy
(Thuiller et al. 2008; Araujo et al. 2011; Bellardet al. 2012; Trivino et al. 2013). From a sustainable
forest management viewpoint, a number of Chinese trees will be
threatened given future climate change. Generally, both mitigation and
adaptation strategies can help Chinese trees enhance their ability to
cope with climate change (Duguma et al. 2014; Chia et al.2016; Locatelli et al. 2016). To mitigate atmospheric
CO2 concentration, even under the lowest emission
scenario considered (RCP2.6), the risks of species loss and turnover
appear to be considerable. To enhance the migration ability of tree
species (introduction or ex situ conservation), the risks of species
loss and turnover also appear to be considerable. Notably, even under
most conservative CO2 emission path and the most
conservative migration scenario, 18% of tree species will be endangered
or more seriously threatened. This 18% proportion of threated trees is
consistent with Thomas’s prediction that 18% of the world’s species
will become extinct under the minimal climate warming scenarios by 2050
using a novel species–area relationship method (Thomas et al.2004). These species may need to be preserved in botanical gardens or
microhabitats in China. Given the many species to be gained in the
Western Qing-Tibet Plateau and to be loss in western arid and eastern
monsoon regions, we suggest that a large number of nature reserves
should be established on the Qing-Tibet Plateau and forest structure
should be adjusted in the western arid region and eastern monsoon
region. We recommend further study of tree adaptation strategies to
climate change to ensure the sustainable development of China’s forests.