Climate change modeling
Climate change scenarios were projected using the best predictive model
for current habitat suitability, for the periods 2009-2049 and
2009-2069. Current predicted suitable habitat was subtracted from
composite binary presence/absence maps using both general circulation
models (GCM’s), with range differences counted as contractions if a
current presence was projected as a future absence, refuge if current
presences remained presences and expansion if current unsuitable habitat
was projected as suitable in the future (Elith et al., 2010; Hatten et
al., 2016; Albuquerque et al., 2018). Box plots showing the two most
significant environmental predictors and their influence on range
changes are presented. The proportion of expansion or contraction of
future ranges relative to current habitat suitability were calculated
and are shown. Prediction maps are also presented with visualizations of
projected expansion and contraction.
RESULTS