Predator-prey temporal overlap models
For models of t0 (no lag) with 1-day and 1-week bin-width
encounter histories, detections of weasels (Fig. 2a), flying squirrels
(Fig. 2b), owls (Fig. 2c), and birds (Fig. 2d) were all positively
correlated with tree voles. We observed consistent negative correlations
among dependent and independent variables for all models with 1-hour
bin-width encounter histories (Fig. 2). Tree vole detections were
consistently negatively correlated with weasels in t + 1 andt + 12 models (Fig. 2a). Tree vole detections were weakly
positively correlated with flying squirrels and birds digging one
time-lag after these predators were detected (t + 1 ; Fig. 2).
Interpreting odds ratios, we observed a nearly ten-fold decrease in odds
of detecting a tree vole one time lag after a weasel was detected
(t + 1 ), from approximately 2 : 1 at t0 (odds ratio = 2.1
(1.2, 3.7; 95% CrI )) to approximately 1 : 5 (odds ratio = 0.19
(0.09, 0.41)) one time-lag after a weasel was detected (t + 1 ;
days), and odds of detecting a tree vole remained low 0.16 (0.13, 0.21)
when modelling time steps to day 12 (t + 12 , days).
Flying squirrels were weakly but consistently positively correlated with
birds digging (except for hour) across bin-widths and time-lags (Fig.
2g). One-hour bin-width showed extreme negative correlations across
models except for the t0 model for owls which slightly
overlapped 0 (Fig. 2e, f, g).