How to evaluate the success of the COVID-19 measures implemented by the
Norwegian government by analyzing changes in doubling time
Abstract
Doubling Time (DT) is typically calculated for growth curves that show
exponential growth, such as the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases day
by day. DT represents the time it takes before the number of COVID-19
cases, in a certain country or area, doubles. Throughout the ongoing
COVID-19 outbreak, DT values are continually changing. These changes are
influenced by the measures that are recommended by the health
authorities and implemented by governments. After the government-imposed
shutdowns of Nordic Countries that were announced around the 12th of
March 2020, we followed the development of the DT in the region.
Governments put in place measures never before experienced during peace
time; working from home, closed schools and kindergartens, travel bans
and social distancing. We conducted analyses to evaluate the
effectiveness of these measures. Does it work? The initial set of
results following the shutdown are encouraging, demonstrating a trend
towards slower growth; however, this could be reversed if the measures
that are in place now are abandoned too early. Premature optimism can be
very costly. In this report we describe a method for monitoring the
epidemic in real time and evaluating the effectiveness of the
implemented measures.