Findings
By the 19th April 2020 the infection R has fallen over
the from 2.8 on 23rd March before the lockdown and has
stabilised at about 0.8 sufficient for suppression. However there remain
significant variations between England regions.
Regression analysis across UTLAs found that the only factor relating to
reduction in ADIR was the historic number of confirmed number
infection/000 population, There is however wide variation between Upper
Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) areas. Extrapolation of these results
showed that unreported community infection may be >200
times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of
the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had
the disease and so have increased immunity.