Why we wrote our recently published paper in IJCP
COVID-19 is the disease associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The
pandemic related to this virus has transformed life for billions of
people across the world, with significant perturbation of the global
economy.
The work that underpinned our recently published article estimating the
proportion of people in the United Kingdom (UK) potentially exposed and
infected with COVID-19 (1) was started in mid-April 2020, 4 weeks after
the initiation of the lockdown in the UK and the United States of
America (USA). Our aim was to find insights and connections from
publicly available data at the level of the UK Local Authority, with
drivers for the average daily infection rate RADIR (2).
The literature shows that many different models are in use today with
differing assumptions and various degrees of uncertainty around the
estimates derived.