COVID-19 in India: Prediction of the Evolution of Coronavirus using
Epidemiological Modeling
Abstract
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic is a big threat for all
countries’ health systems. In India, the first case of coronavirus
occurred in Kerala on 30 January 2020, followed by 2 more until 2
February 2020, but all three were cured, according to the World Health
Organization (WHO) India situation report-2. Since this, no single case
of coronavirus has been recorded across the country for a month.
Nevertheless, from 2 March onwards, the number of cases rose on a
regular basis. As of 21 June 2020, 410,461 confirmed cases and 13,254
total deaths, as stated in the World Health Organization (WHO) India
situation report-21. This research presents significant findings about
the early outbreak of COVID-19 in India. Due to the recent rapid rise in
new cases of COVID-19, the pre-evolution of pandemic coronavirus is a
pre-eminence in India. The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model
was developed to estimate the reproductive number R0 at the early stage
of the outbreak of COVID-19 and to evaluate this outbreak with available
data on confirmed, deaths and recovered cases in India from 02 February
2020 to 26 June 2020.