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\begin{document}

\title{Current and future invasion of Senna didymobotrya under the changing
climate in Africa}



\author[1]{Elias Cherenet Weldemariam}%
\author[1]{Sintayehu   Dejene}%
\affil[1]{Haramaya University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 14, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Senna didymobotrya is invasive native flowering shrubs mainly grow in
Africa. Climate change thought to facilitates the introduction and
spread of invasive alien species. The present study aimed at examining
the present and future invasion of S. didymobotrya under the changing
climatic using species distribution modeling. The mean AUC and TSS value
of the model was (95\%) and (81\%), respectively, which put the model
under an excellent category. Our result showed under the current
climatic conditions 18.11\% of the continent is suitable for S.
didymobotrya invasion. Eastern African countries are found the most
suitable habitat for S. didymobotrya invasion followed by southern
African countries. The total highly suitable area for the species is
3.4\% and 3.17\% in 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the
2070s, the highly suitable area is predicted as 3.18 \% and 2.73\% in
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. An area with the category of low to
moderate suitability under RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s is projected
as 17.4 \% and 20.5 \% and this area is increased in the 2070s to19.11\%
and 22.82 for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The results of this
study showed a substantial contraction in the high suitability areas,
but a large increase in the low and moderately suitable habitat. Despite
the contraction in highly suitable areas, countries which are found
suitable in the present climatic condition remains suitable for S.
didymobotrya establishment. Our ensemble predicted a significant
increase in the vulnerability of habitat for invasion under the future
climatic scenarios. Our study suggests the future biodiversity
conservation strategy and policy direction should focus on the means and
strategy of limiting the rate of expansion of invasion and distribution
in different ecosystem types, hence reduce the expected harm in the
ecosystem services.%
\end{abstract}%



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