Z value indicates a ratio of the model coefficient to its standard error. Significance p-value presents a probability that a particular z value statistic is as extreme as, or more so, than what has been observed under the null hypothesis of the coefficient equal to zeroList of figuresFig. 1. Republic of Kazakhstan: first- and second-level administrative divisions, small ruminants’ population density and location of small ruminants’ farmsFig. 2. The study region (Republic of Kazakhstan and People’s Republic of China) and distribution of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) outbreaks in China, 2007 – 2020. Data source: FAO EMPRES-i.Fig. 3. Observed vs. Predicted PPR outbreaks number as per the model fit to the training prefectures in ChinaFig. 4. Predicted PPR outbreaks’ distribution in RKFig. 5. Clusters of high-risk districts with regard to the PPR spread in Kazakhstan