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\begin{document}

\title{Long-term global ocean heat content change driven by sub-polar surface
heat fluxes}



\author[1]{Taimoor Sohail}%
\author[1]{Damien B Irving}%
\author[1]{Jan David Zika}%
\author[1]{Ryan M Holmes}%
\author[2]{John Alexander Church}%
\affil[1]{University of New South Wales}%
\affil[2]{Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research}%


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  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The ocean has absorbed approximately 90\% of the accumulated heat in the
climate system since 1970. As global warming accelerates, understanding
ocean heat content changes and tracing these to surface heat input is
becoming increasingly important. We introduce a novel tracer-percentile
framework in which we organise the ocean into temperature percentiles
from warmest to coldest, allowing us to trace changes in ocean
temperature to changes in air-sea heat fluxes and mixing. Applying this
framework to observations and historical CMIP6 simulations, we find that
40\% of heat uptake between 1970 and 2014 occurs in the warmest 10\%
ocean volume. However, the coolest 90\% ocean volume outcrops over 23\%
of the ocean's surface area, implying a disproportionately large heat
input per unit area. Additionally, a cold bias in the CMIP6 models is
traced to inaccurate sea surface temperatures and surface heat fluxes
into the warmest 5 -- 20\% ocean volume.%
\end{abstract}%



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