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\begin{document}

\title{Large offspring have enhanced lifetime reproductive success: long-term
carry-over effects of natal size in grey seals (Halichoerus grypus)}



\author[1]{Janelle Badger}%
\author[2]{W. Don Bowen}%
\author[2]{Cornelia den Heyer}%
\author[3]{Greg Breed}%
\affil[1]{NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center}%
\affil[2]{Bedford Institute of Oceanography}%
\affil[3]{University of Alaska Fairbanks}%


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  \date{June 16, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
An individual's size in early stages of life may be an important source
of individual variation in lifetime reproductive performance, as size
effects on ontogenetic development can have cascading physiological and
behavioral consequences throughout life. Here, we explored how natal
size influences subsequent reproductive performance in grey seals
(Halichoerus grypus) using repeated encounter and reproductive data on a
marked sample of 363 females that were measured for length at
\textasciitilde{}4 weeks of age and eventually recruited to the Sable
Island breeding colony. Two reproductive traits were considered:
provisioning performance (mass of weaned offspring), modeled using
linear mixed effects models; and reproductive frequency (rate at which a
female returns to breed), modeled using mixed-effects multistate
mark-recapture models. Mothers with the longest natal lengths produced
pups 8 kg heavier and were 20\% more likely to breed in a given year
than mothers with the shortest lengths. Correlation in body lengths
between natal and adult life stages, however, is weak: longer pups do
not grow to be longer than average adults. Thus covariation between
natal length and future reproductive performance appears to be a
carry-over effect, where the size advantages afforded in early juvenile
stages may allow enhanced long-term performance in adulthood.%
\end{abstract}%



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