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\begin{document}

\title{Impact of satellite observations on forecasting sudden stratospheric
warmings}



\author[1]{Shunsuke Noguchi}%
\author[2]{Yuhji Kuroda}%
\author[3]{Hitoshi Mukougawa}%
\author[4]{Ryo Mizuta}%
\author[4]{Chiaki Kobayashi}%
\affil[1]{Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology}%
\affil[2]{Meteorological College, Japan Meteorological Agency}%
\affil[3]{Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University}%
\affil[4]{Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The observational impacts of satellite data assimilation on
extended-range forecasts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are
investigated by conducting ensemble reforecast experiments. We use two
Japanese novel reanalysis products: the Japanese 55-year reanalysis
(JRA-55) and its subset that assimilates conventional observations only
(JRA-55C). A comparative examination on the reproducibility for SSWs
between the two ensemble forecasts reveals that the impact of satellite
observations is significant for forecasts starting 5 days before the SSW
onset, with 20\% less accuracy in the JRA-55C forecasts. Moreover, some
of forecasts of vortex-splitting SSWs show a sudden appearance of deep
difference, which lasts over a few months in the lower stratosphere and
significantly affects the surface climate. These results highlight an
important role of mesospheric and upper stratospheric circulations on
the onset and development of SSWs.%
\end{abstract}%



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