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\begin{document}

\title{Effects of climate change on inter-basin exchange in Lower Lake
Constance}



\author[1,1]{Irene Caramatti}%
\author[1,1]{Frank Peeters}%
\author[1,1]{Hilmar Hofmann}%
\affil[1]{University of Konstanz}%


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  \date{June 10, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Inter-basin exchange of water and dissolved substances in lakes is often
limited by topographic constrictions leading to spatially heterogeneous
distributions of nutrients and plankton. Here, we identify the main
factors controlling inter-basin exchange on seasonal and inter-annual
time scales and investigate the impact of changes in climate and
hydrology focusing mainly on the exchange between two basins of Lower
Lake Constance (LLC). The analysis is based on multi-annual simulations
of LLC, a sensitivity analysis, and numerical tracer experiments with a
coupled 3-D hydrodynamic ice model (AEM3D). The seasonal course of water
exchange is predominantly determined by the seasonal change in the
current speed across the sill, v\textsubscript{S}, but also by changes
in the area of the cross-section above the sill resulting from water
level changes. The seasonal pattern of v\textsubscript{S} is linked to
the presence of ice cover, the seasonal change in stratification and in
water level. The impact of climate warming and hydrological change on
water exchange therefore varies seasonally. Climate warming results in
reduced ice cover and an earlier onset and longer duration of
stratification, leading to enhanced inter-basin exchange especially
during winter and spring, but not in summer. In contrast, increased
water levels enhance inter-basin exchange especially in summer, because
the increase in cross-sectional area associated with increased water
levels coincides then with high v\textsubscript{S}. Finally, the
fraction of water from Upper Lake Constance reaching the rather secluded
basin Gnadensee increases with climate warming, implying a larger
influence of the upstream conditions on Gnadensee.%
\end{abstract}%



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