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\begin{document}

\title{Variable streamflow response to forest disturbance in the western US: A
large-sample hydrology approach}



\author[1,1]{Sara A Goeking}%
\author[2,2]{David Gavin Tarboton}%
\affil[1]{USDA Forest Service}%
\affil[2]{Utah State University}%


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  \date{May 23, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Forest cover and streamflow are generally expected to vary inversely
because reduced forest cover typically leads to less transpiration and
interception. However, recent studies in the western US have found no
change or even decreased streamflow following forest disturbance due to
drought and insect epidemics. We investigated streamflow response to
forest cover change using hydrologic, climatic, and forest data for 159
watersheds in the western US from the CAMELS dataset for the period
2000-2019. Forest change and disturbance were quantified in terms of net
tree growth (total growth volume minus mortality volume) and mean annual
mortality rates, respectively, from the US Forest Service's Forest
Inventory and Analysis database. Annual streamflow was analyzed using
multiple methods: Mann-Kendall trend analysis, time trend analysis to
quantify change not attributable to annual precipitation and
temperature, and multiple regression to quantify contributions of
climate, mortality, and aridity. Many watersheds exhibited decreased
annual streamflow even as forest cover decreased. Time trend analysis
identified decreased streamflow not attributable to precipitation and
temperature changes in many disturbed watersheds, yet streamflow change
was not consistently related to disturbance, suggesting drivers other
than disturbance, precipitation, and temperature. Multiple regression
analysis indicated that although change in streamflow is significantly
related to tree mortality, the direction of this effect depends on
aridity. Specifically, forest disturbances in wet, energy-limited
watersheds (i.e., where annual potential evapotranspiration is less than
annual precipitation) tended to increase streamflow, while
post-disturbance streamflow more frequently decreased in dry
water-limited watersheds (where the potential evapotranspiration to
precipitation ratio exceeds 2.35).%
\end{abstract}%



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