Plain Language Summary
According to the IPCC and other scientific organizations, “it is
extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the
observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century.”
However, a significant percentage of the population does not fully
embrace this consensus. Using data from the Barrow Atmospheric
Observatory, this paper assesses whether the hourly temperature data
support this apparent denial. It is first noted that the average annual
temperature at Barrow over the 2015-2020 period was about 3.37oC higher than in the 1985-1990 period. The formal
analysis employs hourly solar irradiance, CO2, and
temperature data. The model controls for possible non-anthropomorphic
drivers of annual temperature and other factors.
The model was estimated using
hourly data over the time interval 1 Jan 1985 through 31 Dec 2015. The
estimated annual effects of CO2 are significant in
magnitude, while the non-anthropomorphic drivers exclusive of solar
irradiance are quantitively unimportant. The model is evaluated over the
1 Jan 2016 through 31 Aug 2017 time interval. The model’s out-of-sample
hourly temperature predictions are highly accurate, but this accuracy is
degraded if the estimated CO2 effects are ignored. In
short, the results are consistent with the scientific consensus on
climate change.