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\begin{document}

\title{Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation
Entropy}



\author[1,1,1]{Maria R.P. Sudibyo}%
\author[1,1,1]{Eva Patricia Silke Eibl}%
\author[2,2,2]{Sebastian Hainzl}%
\author[3,3,3]{Gylfi Pall Hersir}%
\affil[1]{University of Potsdam}%
\affil[2]{GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences}%
\affil[3]{retired}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 23, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their
interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a
challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of
volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers
erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting
methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a
robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the
Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute-long eruptive
cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves
consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic
tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE
calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE
pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive
cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15s before
the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the
predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic
signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions.%
\end{abstract}%



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