Relative importance of environmental covariates
The availability of suitable nesting sites and trophic nutrients determines distribution and abundance patterns, notably for raptors . Temperature can directly affect animal growth and reproduction, as well as indirectly by affecting the food chain, which can have an impact on animal survival. Extreme precipitation generally poses a threat to bird survival . The description of raptor species declines in response to periods of extremely low or high precipitation, as shown by the curves of precipitation in the wettest quarter (bio18), precipitation in the driest month (bio14), and precipitation in the coldest quarter (bio19), supports the conclusions of our studies
The ensemble model’s relative contributions from each environmental covariate are consistent with our theoretical understanding of each species’ biology. The limiting factors of precipitation and temperature have a significant impact on the distribution of all five species. The fact that bio18 (Precipitation of the warmest quarter) has such a strong impact on all species (Fig. 3) may indicate that these species prefer habitats with the right amount of precipitation and temperature. Compared to the rest of the other species, the Steppe Eagle and the Secretarybird appreciated the inclusion of NDVI (Table 1). This might lend credence to the idea that these two birds prefer environments with some kind of woody vegetation. In Africa, Steppe eagles typically inhabit savannas and grasslands, with occasional use of dry woodlands. The Secretarybird migrates in response to rainfall and the increase in prey. It favors open grasslands, savannas, and shrubland over forests and dense shrubbery, which could obstruct its fleeting existence.
For all species, the effect of the human influence index was surprisingly low. Our results are in line with those of , and show that human influence did not have a significant impact on the distribution of suitable habitat for the five species. Raptor interactions, such as potential prey competition, have the potential to influence the distribution of suitable habitats . Given that precipitation and temperature were the most significant predictors for all five species, the ramifications of changing climate is likely to have a significant impact on how raptors are distributed and may cause their ranges to contract .
The predicted spatial distributions of the five species of raptors differed in size. These differences might be primarily brought on by variations in the predicted distributions’ environmental ranges. The Martial eagle, for instance, had a much wider coverage range than the Southern ground hornbill. Species with wider geographic ranges are more resilient to climate change . Due to the lack of protection in raptor priority areas, conservation efforts should be functional outside of the current conservation areas. It is likely that extensive conservation and governmental measures will be needed to preserve raptors and the ecosystem services they provide. Legislation may be passed, for instance, to control the distribution and utilization of veterinary drugs, which are reducing the number of vultures in Africa . Additionally, thorough environmental impact assessments (EIAs) should be carried out before developing energy infrastructure in order to recognize and eliminate risks to raptors especially vultures . Our biodiversity will continue to face serious threats and challenges, particularly in Kenya’s key biodiversity areas (KBAs) as they are put under increasing pressure by an increase in infrastructure developments like roads, power and wind energy, pipelines, land use changes, and illegal activities like logging . Furthermore, it will be crucial to work with stakeholders to recognize and address regional problems like conflict between people and wildlife, which may be a factor in the decline of raptors.
A more complete study of the spatial distributions of threats will be a crucial next step in improving raptor conservation in Kenya. Raptors in Sudan, for instance, have been shown to be electrocuted by power lines and similarly alarming levels of electrocution have been recorded in Kenya . Flying birds like raptors and other species can be severely harmed by high voltage transmission lines, even though increasing renewable energy is generally a desirable plan of action for Kenya’s global environmental sustainability and development for a host of reasons .