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\begin{document}

\title{Island fragmentation by sea level rise and global warming drive
prehistoric extinctions in Mediterranean island reptiles}



\author[1]{Samual Kalb}%
\author[2]{Kenneth Rijsdijk}%
\author[2]{Johannes De Groeve}%
\author[3]{Lieve Denkers}%
\author[4]{E. Emiel van Loon}%
\author[5]{Johannes Foufopoulos}%
\affil[1]{University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability}%
\affil[2]{University of Amsterdam}%
\affil[3]{Utrecht University Faculty of Science}%
\affil[4]{Unversiteit van Amsterdam}%
\affil[5]{University of Michigan}%


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  \date{March 13, 2025}


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\begin{abstract}
We assess how reptile population extinctions on Mediterranean islands
has been influenced since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by the
interacting effects of island area, timing of fragmentation, changing
climate, and topography. By using geophysical models of sea-level rise
we produce island-fragmentation cladograms which depict the sequence and
timing by which 80 islands and 52 paleo-islands in the Aegean and Ionian
seas progressively became separated from paleo-landmasses. These
cladograms are used to reconstruct the progressive sequence of local
reptile population extinctions. We found that population extinctions
rise linearly with increased duration of isolation and that extinctions
correlate negatively with (paleo-) island area. In addition, extinctions
are positively associated with higher summer temperatures implicating
heat stress, as well as with higher island topographic roughness, which
may be an indication of diminished resource availability. These
conclusions point forward to understanding, predicting, and eventually
preventing future species extinctions due to climatic change.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Climatic_and_environmental_drivers_of_extinction_V17_Eco_let.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/621956/articles/645276-island-fragmentation-by-sea-level-rise-and-global-warming-drive-prehistoric-extinctions-in-mediterranean-island-reptiles}

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Text box Figures and Tables V17.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/621956/articles/645276-island-fragmentation-by-sea-level-rise-and-global-warming-drive-prehistoric-extinctions-in-mediterranean-island-reptiles}

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