Epidemic model of Covid-19 with public health interventions
consideration: a review
Abstract
:Since the Covid-19 outbreak and widely spread, global attentions have
been increasingly drawn to the epidemic spread and pandemic development.
Many researchers focus on the modelling of the development of the
COVID-19 and the effect of intervention on containment of the spread. We
systematically reviewed the epidemic models of COVID-19 transmission and
its public health interventions: a) COVID-19 epidemic models, including
its hypothesis, key input epidemiological parameters, asymptomatic
proportion and mortality; b) the impact of public health interventions,
including social isolation, contact tracking, improving quarantine rate
and reporting rate, travel restrictions, etc. To help the modelling
researchers to calibrate the epidemiological model accurately based on
the actual situation, the public health authorities should work out
accurate epidemiology data. Different countries should take appropriate
public health interventions to control the development of the epidemic.
Although strict travel restrictions can significantly suppress the
spread of COVID-19, while contact tracking, isolation and other measures
can identify and control the infection source timely and effectively,
which can cut off the transmission, but protective face mask is the
intervention measure with the lowest economic cost and social cost.
After the recession of the epidemic in Wuhan, the result of centralized
nucleic acid detection on 9.97 million people showed that the
asymptomatic infection ratio was very low and asymptomatic infection was
not infectious, suggesting that the existing Covid-19 epidemiological
models may overestimate the risk of epidemic. Excessive public
preventive measures may do more harm than good, and hinder the recovery
of normal economic life order.