Tasha Aylett

and 4 more

This study presents an analysis of sporadic-E (Es) structures within WACCM-X (the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension), including electrodynamical transport of metallic ions. A set of selection criteria have been developed to identify Es layers in WACCM-X output based on the total metal ion density in each model grid box. These criteria are used to create a climatology of Es, which is compared to Es occurrence rates derived from FORMOSAT/COSMIC-1 (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio-occultation measurements. The novel identification algorithm analyses two-week time slices between altitudes of 90-150km, with Es layer events identified where the three selection criteria are met. Distinct seasonal distributions in Es occurrence were observed that are consistent with previous studies, with peaks during summer and reduced frequencies during winter, alignment of Es with geomagnetic contours, and layers descending in altitude as a function of local time. While discrepancies exist between WACCM-X and COSMIC data (WACCM-X occurrence rates are a factor of ~2 lower than COSMIC-derived occurrence rates at mid-latitudes), highlighting the ongoing challenges in modelling Es layers, this study enhances the modelling capabilities of sporadic Es and deepens our understanding of their formation; it establishes a basis for their enhanced integration into global climate models and facilitates further investigation of Es behaviour under different atmospheric conditions, paving the way to improved prediction of the occurrence of Es.
The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, with air quality co-benefits anticipated from climate change mitigation. Few studies try to model these co-benefits at a regional scale and even fewer consider health inequalities in their analyses.   We analyse the health impacts across Western and Central Europe from exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface level ozone (O3) in 2014 and in 2050 using three scenarios with different levels of climate change mitigation, using a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model to simulate future air quality. We use recent health functions to estimate mortality related to the aforementioned pollutants. We also analyse the relationship between air quality mortality rate per 100,000 people and Human Development Index to establish if reductions in air quality mortality are achieved equitably.   We find that air quality-related mortality (PM2.5 + O3 mortality) will only reduce in the future following a high-mitigation scenario (54%). It could increase by 7.5\% following a medium-mitigation scenario and by 8.3% following a weak mitigation scenario. The differences are driven by larger reductions in PM2.5-related mortality and a small reduction in O3-related mortality following the sustainable scenario, whereas for the other scenarios, smaller improvements in PM2.5-related mortality are masked by worsening O$_3$-related mortality.   We find that less developed regions of European countries have higher mortality rates from PM2.5 and O3 exposure in the present day, but that this inequity is reduced following greater climate change mitigation.
The gravity wave drag parametrization of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) has been modified to include the wave-driven atmospheric vertical mixing caused by propagating, non-breaking, gravity waves. The strength of this atmospheric mixing is represented in the model via the "effective wave diffusivity" coefficient K_wave. Using K_wave, a new total dynamical diffusivity K_Dyn is defined. K_Dyn represents the vertical mixing of the atmosphere by both breaking (dissipating) and vertically propagating (non-dissipating) gravity waves. Here we show that, when the new diffusivity is used, the downward fluxes of Fe and Na between 80 and 100 km largely increase. Larger meteoric ablation injection rates of these metals (within a factor 2 of measurements) can now be used in WACCM, which produce Na and Fe layers in good agreement with lidar observations. Mesospheric CO2 is also significantly impacted, with the largest CO2 concentration increase occurring between 80-90 km, where model-observations agreement improves. However, in regions where the model overestimates CO2 concentration, the new parametrization exacerbates the model bias. The mesospheric cooling simulated by the new parametrization, while needed, is currently too strong almost everywhere. The summer mesopause in both hemispheres becomes too cold by about 30K compared to observations, but it shifts upward, partially correcting the WACCM low summer mesopause. Our results highlight the far-reaching implications and the necessity of representing vertically propagating gravity waves in climate models. This novel method of modelling gravity waves contributes to growing evidence that it is time to move away from dissipative-only gravity wave parametrizations.