The probability of survival, s , showed a positive relationship with tree size, x , and a negative one with successional age,t (Fig. 2A). Larger trees have a higher probability of survival than smaller ones. In addition, there is an interaction between these two explanatory variables since at the beginning of succession nearly all trees, irrespective of size, have a high survival probability, whereas only trees taller than 5 m survive in the mature forest, according to the model.

The average change in height, i.e. , the difference between tree size at time t +1 and at time t , y – x , displayed a negative relationship with tree size at time t ,x , and a very weak negative relationship with successional age,t (Fig. 2B). Consequently, trees with heights > 7 m have, on average, negative growth rates for all successional years. By contrast, trees with heights < 7 m have positive growth rates throughout succession. However, this growth is very small, being at most 0.41 m per year.

Fecundity showed a positive relationship with tree height a timet , and a non-linear relationship with successional age, with this demographic component being higher at intermediate successional stages and lower both at early and advanced stages. However, the latter pattern is more evident in medium-size and large trees (Fig. 2C). The average probability for a tree to reproduce was 0.34, while the maximum value was relatively low at 0.48 (Fig. S1). As for total seed production per reproductive tree, the average value predicted by the model was 231 seeds per tree, while the predicted maximum value was 2277 seeds (Fig. 2C).

The size distributions of new recruits and resprouts,f ₅ and f ₇, respectively, reflect the differences in size when they enter the population (Fig. 2D). While the size distribution of recruits was concentrated around 0.45 m in height, with a minimum of 0.20 m and a maximum of 0.76 m, the size distribution of resprouts had an average of 1.39 m, with a minimum of 0.34 m and a maximum of 2.43 m. In addition, the standard deviation was higher in the resprout size distribution (0.46 m), compared to the respective value of the recruits distribution (1.21 m).

The probability of establishment from seed decreased dramatically after the very first years of succession (Fig. 2E). On average, the probability of establishment was very low with a value of 0.01. Only at the beginning of the succession was this value very high, with a maximum of 0.83 for the first year of abandonment, but it rapidly decreases to less than 0.1 from the fourth year onwards.

Similarly, the number of resprouts displayed per year changed drastically during the first 10 years of succession (Fig. 2F). At the early stages, the maximum number of resprouts was 181. By year 10 of the succession, only 2 resprouts were included per plot, and from year 33 onwards, the number predicted by the model was less than 1.