The population size of M. acantholoba showed a pattern expected for a pioneer species, with high growth rates in the first years of succession, rapidly reaching its peak in the fourth year, and decreasing thereafter. However, the population size projected by the model presents much higher values than the observed maxima at the different plots. According to the projected model, the population begins to decrease very early in succession and becomes locally extinct around year 38. This contrasts with the observed data, since there are a few plots where a small population of late-stage individuals remains; however, these populations restrict to areas close to the hilltops, which present poorly developed soils that resemble early-successional sites.

The population growth rate also shows a general pattern that coincides with our expectations. At the onset of succession, the population growth rate attains its highest value, although the value projected by the model is higher than the observed one. It is possible that this general pattern is related to the probability of survival, the probability of establishment and resprouting, since these are the rates with the clearest responses to successional age, and changes in these processes coincide in time with the most important changes in the population level pattern. This seems to suggest that a large fraction of the changes in population dynamics, which occur in the first years of succession, are strongly determined by these three factors. Later, from the fourth year of succession onwards, the growth rate takes negative values. However, the values observed in different plots become very small before they take the values projected by the model. According to the model, after year 30 of succession, the population reduces its mortality and disappears at a slower rate, which is consistent with previous research (Lebrija-Trejos et al. 2010).

Successional changes in population size structure occur before the most important changes in population size and growth rate have taken place. This implies the existence of a relatively short time-window, approximately between 10 and 30 years of successional age, in which practically all individuals attain their maximal sizes, between 5 and 7 m; thereafter, the population size structure remains relatively constant, regardless of the important changes in population dynamics that continue to occur.