Top-down vs bottom-up effects
There was a positive relationship between lynx and badger in summer, although the proportion of agricultural land and EVI were stronger predictors of badger encounter rate (Figure 3). There was also a positive association between wolf and red fox encounter rates in summer (Figure 3), but this relationship was weaker (ROPE = 5.8; Appendix 3), and red fox encounter rate was more associated with badger presence and EVI (Figure 3). Both red fox and badger encounter rates were stronger predictors of pine marten encounter rates than land cover variables in winter (Figure 3). Indeed, all mesocarnivores (red fox, badger and pine marten) showed positive interactions among each other, which were stronger in winter (Figure 3).
Land cover variables had contrasting effects for different species and seasons. The proportion of agricultural land was a positive predictor for badger encounter rates in both seasons, and a negative predictor for pine martens, wolves and lynx in summer (Figure 3). Additionally, EVI was a positive predictor of lynx, red fox and badger encounter rates, but only in summer (Figure 3). There was also some evidence of a positive association between EVI and both wolf and pine marten encounter rate. Even though the CRI for the median overlapped zero, only 13% and 39% of the posterior distribution was in the ROPE and pd = 0.87 and pd = 0.71, respectively for wolf and pine marten in summer (Appendix 3).