Abstract
The Covid-19 Pandemic has impacted all Latin American countries, which
has become worse by having fragmented health systems and deep social
inequalities, it is noteworthy that public policies are formulated based
on general economic principles such as the law of dynamic equilibrium,
assuming that all the processes that determine the socioeconomic
evolution flow smoothly and continuously, taking out of consideration
the occurrence of contingencies and emergent events that force all
social action levels to adjust their plans and strategies, for which it
is necessary to evaluate the impacts that this pandemic has caused in
Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia), which
allow us to know the evolution of the disease in these countries. The
objectives of this article are: Provide evidence that fractional models
are easily adaptable to the evolution of the virus in populations from
different socioeconomic contexts; Know the behavior of the disease in
the study countries from the parameters of the best approximation of the
model in contrast with the real data of the infection; For the modeling,
systems of differential equations will be applied and for the
calculation of the optimal coefficients, the method of Markov Monte
Carlo chains (MCMC) will be implemented to estimate model parameters.