How Government Trust Influences Perception of Flood Hazard Risk: Experimental Evidences in China
INTRODUCTION
Floods are a very destructive natural disaster (Kellens, Terpstra, Schelfaut, & De Maeyer, 2013). Risk perception refers to people’s subjective estimation of the likelihood and dread (Slovic, 1987). As people sometimes do not take suggestions made by the government because of their misperception of floods risk (Bradford et al., 2012), clarifying the complex relationship between government trust and risk perception is becoming increasingly vital to increase the efficiency of risk communication (O’Sullivan et al., 2012).
Trust—which stems from people’s judgments concerning an authority’s propensity to be open and honest—serves to reduce people’s perception of the complexity and uncertainty of a situation (White & Johnson, 2010). Trust is a mechanism for the reduction of complexity, it enables people to maintain their capacity to act in a complex environment (Siegrist, 2021). Trust is essential for a better understanding of people’s risk perceptions. Trust allows people to adapt to various hazards they face in society and react in a rational way (Siegrist & Cvetkovich, 2000; Viklund, 2003; Welch et al., 2005). Terpstra (2011) noted that trust and affect share similarities—both constructs reduce the complexity of risk judgment and consequently serve as “quick” guides for assessing risks. In the past decades, the relationship between trust and risk perception has received great attention (e.g., Freudenburg, 1993; Nakayachi & Cvetkovich, 2010; Siegrist, Luchsinger, & Bearth, 2021). Frewer, Howard, Hedderley, & Shepherd, 1996; Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015).
Trust in government indicates people’s satisfaction with specific public services, citizens’ trust in government plays a pivotal role in improving government work and consolidating public legitimacy (Christensen & Laegreid, 2005). Trust in government has more significant effect on physical health and social relationship (Liang, 2016). government and social trust play indispensable roles in shaping risk perceptions, trust in central government leads to lower risks perceptions (Ma & Christensen, 2019). People with higher degrees of trust in government perceive lower consequences of potential earthquakes and tend to prepare less (Han et al., 2016).
However, the importance of trust has often been questioned (Siegrist, 2021; Sjöberg, 2001; Vainio et al., 2017; Viklund, 2003). Some researchers found that trust will decrease risk perception (Tumlison, Moyer, & Song, 2017; Vainio, Paloniemi, & Varho, 2017). While, some researchers argue that a weak correlation exists between trust and risk perception (Lin, Shaw, & Ho, 2008; Sjöberg, 2001). Moreover, previous research has not clarified the relationship between trust and risk perception that is whether trust causally influences risk perception is not clear (Siegrist, 2021). Eiser et al.(2002) insist that trust does not causally influence risk perception, and both variables are simultaneously influenced by people’s attitudes. To examine the role of trust, we designed three studies to examine how people’s trust in government influences how they process information and subsequently perceive risk.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPOTHESES