Figure 3. Time series of model performance metrics (a, b) and environmental novelty (c) during the forecasting period (2014 - 2019). Panels show (a) AUC, (b) MAE, and (c) Hellinger Distance relative to the training period (1995 - 2013). In (a) and (b), circles and lines are colored by model type, with lines representing smoothed monthly averages for each metric. In (c), line types differentiate between MLD and SST novelty. Model acronyms denote habitat envelope (HE), Gaussian field (GF), integrated species distribution model (iSDM). Circle sizes represent the count of data predicted by the models for each month.