3.4 Prediction of Suitable Areas of T. sinense in Historical and Future Climates
This study analyzed six periods to predict potential distribution areas for T. sinense . Optimal distribution areas varied across periods, predominantly favoring Southwest China.
The total suitable area for T. sinense has exhibited fluctuations from the last interglacial period to the present (Fig. 5). Initially, it stood at 758,258 km2, decreasing to 731,469.3 km2, then rising to 750,132.8 km2before sharply declining to 675,550.8 km2. Similar trends were observed in high, medium, and low suitability areas (Table 4).
Under various climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s, significant changes occurred in suitable areas due to climate shifts (Fig. 5). In the 2050s, the climate scenario yielding the largest suitable area was SSPs2-4.5, which was 60,955.2 km2 less than the current scenario. By 2070, SSPs1-2.6 exhibited the largest suitable area, 39,032.8 km2 less than the current scenario. Across all grades, the future suitable habitat area for T. sinense is expected to decrease compared to the current area (Table 4).