3.6 Core Distributional Shifts
Throughout history, the centroid of T. sinense has exhibited
notable fluctuations (Fig. 7). From the last interglacial period to the
last glacial maximum, the center of mass shifted southwest by 49,638 m.
Subsequently, from the last glacial period to the mid-Holocene, the
centroid moved northeast by 36,430 m. Continuing into the present era,
the center of mass further migrated northeast by 18,472.6 m (Table 6).
Projection analysis indicates a northward shift in the centroid of the
suitable area for T. sinense by 2050 and 2070, under future
climate change scenarios (Fig. 7). With increasing greenhouse gas
emissions, the spatial distribution of potentially suitable areas
undergoes more pronounced alterations over greater distances. Notably,
the migration distance of T. sinense in the 2070s surpasses that
of the 2050s under low and medium emission concentrations, except for
the center of the 2050s-SSPs8.5. The most extensive migration distance
occurs under the SSPs7.0-2070s climate scenario.