Abstract
Quercus chungii is an endemic tree species in China, rare and
endangered in subtropical areas of China. Understanding its population
structure and temporal dynamics is crucial for conserving and restoringQ. chungii population and its associated ecosystems. However,
large knowledge gaps remain about its population structure and temporal
change, and its key demographic rates across size classes. In this
study, we investigated the population structures of Q. chungii in
2013 and 2023 in a nature reserve specifically established to better
conserve Q. chungii and its associated ecosystems. We
found that Q. chungii increased in its overall
abundance, frequency and tree size in the past decade, suggesting active
regeneration and fast growth rate of this species and the effectiveness
of past conservation efforts. The age structure in 2023 shows a pyramid
shape, with a sharp decline in the numbers of individuals from
germinated seeds to seedlings and from seedlings to saplings. These lead
to the low numbers of seedlings and saplings and highage-specific death probabilities at the early developmental
stages. These results indicate potential risks of future population
decline. These risks may have already manifested over the past decade,
as a high mortality rate during the seedling-to-sapling transition could
be one of the primary reasons contributing to the decreased proportion
of saplings in 2023 compared to 2013. We propose that future studies may
benefit from in-depth studies on the regeneration processes of Q.
chungii by considering seed predation and germination under changing
climate. This study improves the prediction of population development ofQ. chungii and provide theoretical guidance for the conservation
of Q. chungii .