Prediction of agricultural drought in Chile from multiple
spatio-temporal data sources
Abstract
Global food security is negatively affected by drought. Climate
projections show that drought frequency and intensity may increase in
different parts of the globe. Early season forecasts on drought
occurrence and severity could help to better mitigate the negative
consequences of drought. The objective of this study was to assess if
interannual variability in agricultural productivity in Chile can be
accurately predicted from freely-available, near real-time data sources.
As the response variable, we used the standard score of seasonal
cumulative NDVI (zcNDVI), based on 2000-2017 data from Moderate
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), as a proxy for anomalies
of seasonal primary productivity. The predictions were performed with
forecast lead-times from one- to six-month before the end of the growing
season, which varied between census units in Chile. Predictor variables
included the zcNDVI obtained by cumulating NDVI from season start up to
prediction time; standardised precipitation indices, derived from
satellite rainfall estimates, for time-scales of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24
months; the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Multivariate ENSO
oscillation indices; the length of the growing season, and latitude and
longitude. We used two prediction approaches: (i) optimal linear
regression (OLR) whereby for each census unit the single predictor was
selected that best explained the interannual zcNDVI variability, and
(ii) a multi-layer feedforward neural network architecture, often called
deep learning (DL), where all predictors for all units were combined in
a single spatio-temporal model. Both approaches were evaluated with a
leave-one-year-out cross-validation procedure. Both methods showed good
prediction accuracies for small lead times and similar values for all
lead times. The mean R2cv values for OLR were 0.95, 0.83, 0.68, 0.56,
0.46 and 0.37, against 0.96, 0.84, 0.65, 0.54, 0.46 and 0.38 for DL, for
one, two, three, four, five, and six months lead time, respectively.
Given the wide range of climates and vegetation types covered within the
study area, we expect that the presented models can contribute to an
improved early warning system for agricultural drought in different
geographical settings around the globe.