Intermodel differences in upwelling in the tropical tropopause layer
among CMIP5 models
Abstract
The climatology of upwelling in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in
current climate simulations and in future climate projections is
examined using models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Large intermodel differences in upwelling in
the TTL appear in the current climate simulations. Model composite
analysis and upwelling diagnosis based on the zonal momentum budget
indicate that the intermodel differences in upwelling are controlled by
meridional eddy momentum fluxes associated with tropical planetary waves
and midlatitude synoptic waves. Future climate simulations indicate that
upwelling changes in the TTL are significantly correlated with the
upwelling in current climate simulations. Models with strong (weak) TTL
upwelling in the current climate simulations tend to project strong
(weak) upwelling enhancement in the future climate. The intermodel
differences in the upwelling change arise from the same dynamical
factors as the current climate cases. The contribution of sea surface
temperature (SST) to the intermodel upwelling differences is examined by
SST-prescribed simulations in CMIP5. The contribution of intermodel SST
differences to the upwelling is smaller than that of intrinsic
atmospheric intermodel differences. The significant correlation of the
tropical upwelling between the current climate simulations and the
future changes appears to be independent of the target latitude range.