A Satellite Observations and Numerical Modelling Based Integrated Flash
Flood Forecasting System for North-East Region of Bangladesh
Abstract
North-east region of Bangladesh is comprised of hilly transboundary
rivers in the upstream and complex river network along with floodplain
in the downstream. In this study, a satellite observation and numerical
modeling based near real-time flash flood forecasting framework is
developed for the north-east part of Bangladesh. For nowcast
information, Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) developed
latest near real-time IMERG precipitation product is chosen. To produce
improved quality precipitation forecasts, Global Forecasting System
(GFS) based precipitation predictions are corrected by applying
climatology based bias adjustment technique. Flow from upstream river
channels into the complex river network are calculated by using the
nowcast and forecast precipitation products forced into Soil and Water
Assessment Tool hydrological Model. The inflow discharges from the
hydrological model then used in HecRAS hydrodynamic model to produce
forecasted water height/discharge, flood depth and inundation in
prominent locations in the study region. Both of the hydrological and
hydrodynamic models are simulated sequentially in sub-daily scale to
produce 120 hours lead time forecasts. SWAT Model was calibrated and
validated in six inflow stations using rated discharge. HecRAS Model was
calibrated and validated using measured water level at different
locations.