Impacts of Emission Changes and Meteorology on the Long-term (2013-2020)
Ozone Trend in a Megacity (Chengdu), China
Abstract
Elevated ozone (O3) pollution in the warm season is an emerging
environmental concern affecting global highly urbanized megacities. In
southwestern China, full characterization of causes for O3 pollution has
been stymied by limited observations and the dominant factors that
influence O3 variability on a long-term basis still lack understanding.
Herein, we identified O3 variations and inferred trends in precursor
emissions in Chengdu over 2013–2020 based on extensive ambient
measurements, emission inventory, and satellite data. Numerical models
were used to investigate the changes in meteorological variability and
biogenic emissions. Trends of O3 in urban areas show deterioration
(+14.0% yr−1) between 2013 and 2016 followed by a slight decrease over
2017–2020, while O3 levels in rural areas generally show a downward
trend (−2.9% yr−1) during 2014–2020. Both emission inventory (−3.7%
yr−1) and OMI satellite columns (−4.5% yr−1) depict strong decline
trends in NOx emissions, while satellite HCHO columns exhibit a
flattened downward trend of VOC emissions (−1.8% yr−1), which caused
rural areas shifted from VOCs-limited to transitional or NOx-limited
regime since 2016. Considering metropolitan Chengdu remains VOCs-limited
regime over time, the existing regulatory framework involving
simultaneous NOx and VOCs control would result in evident O3
improvements in the near future. Despite benefits from anthropogenic
emission reductions, we demonstrate that meteorological conditions and
enhanced biogenic emissions over the warm season could partially or even
fully offset effects attributed to emission changes, making the net
effects obscure. This finding provides robust evidence of reductions in
NOx and VOCs emission and informs effective O3 mitigation policies for
megacities which undergo similar emission pathways in Chengdu.