Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified
Climate Models
Abstract
By solving Laplace’s tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific
thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing
due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to
precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The
underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as
spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long,
despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that
a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar
impulses along with a biennially-aligned “see-saw” is enough to cause
a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum.
So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for
a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and
phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three
fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the
measured Earth’s length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a
monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely.
Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides
will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible.
Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data
is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see
attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly
differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference
equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to
clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was
validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP)
records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of
equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to
ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing.
This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has implications for
vastly simplifying global climate models due to the straightforward
application of a well-known and well-calibrated forcing. [1] Na,
Sung-Ho, et al. “Characteristics of Perturbations in Recent Length of
Day and Polar Motion.” Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences 30
(2013): 33-41.