Science AMA Series: We just published a study showing that
~97% of climate experts really do agree humans causing
global warming. Ask Us Anything!
Abstract
Hello there, /r/Science! We* are a group of researchers who just
published a meta-analysis of expert agreement on humans causing global
warming. The lead author John Cook has a video backgrounder on the paper
here, and articles in The Conversation and Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists. Coauthor Dana Nuccitelli also did a background post on his
blog at the Guardian here. You may have heard the statistic “97% of
climate experts agree that humans are causing global warming.” You may
also have wondered where that number comes from, or even have heard that
it was “debunked”. This metanalysis looks at a wealth of surveys (of
scientists as well as the scientific literature) about scientific
agreement on human-caused global warming, and finds that among climate
experts, the ~97% level among climate experts is pretty
robust. The upshot of our paper is that the level of agreement with the
consensus view increases with expertise. When people claim the number is
lower, they usually do so by cherry-picking the responses of groups of
non-experts, such as petroleum geologists or weathercasters. Why does
any of this matter? Well, there is a growing body of scientific
literature that shows the public’s perception of scientific agreement is
a “gateway belief” for their attitudes on environmental questions
(e.g. Ding et al., 2011, van der Linden et al., 2015, and more). In
other words, if the public thinks scientists are divided on an issue,
that causes the public to be less likely to agree that a problem exists
and makes them less willing to do anything about it. Making sure the
public understands the high level of expert agreement on this topic
allows the public dialog to advance to more interesting and pressing
questions, like what as a society we decided to do about the issue.
We’re here to answer your questions about this paper and more general,
related topics. We ill be back later to answer your questions, Ask us
anything! *Joining you today will be: Stuart Carlton aka @jscarlton John
Cook aka /u/SkepticScience Sarah Green aka @FataMorgana_LS Peter Jacobs
aka /u/past_is_future Stephan Lewandowsky aka /u/StephanLewandowsky
Andy Skuce aka /u/AndySkuce Bart Verheggen aka @BVerheggen and perhaps
some others if they have time Mod Note: Due to the geographical spread
of our guests there will be a lag in some answers, please be patient!