Emergence of European and North American mutant variants of SARS-CoV-2
in Southeast Asia
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 strain of the coronavirus is responsible for the current
COVID-19 pandemic, with an ongoing toll of over 5 million infections and
333 thousand deaths worldwide within the first 5 months. Insight into
the phylodynamics and mutation variants of this strain is vital to
understanding the nature of its spread in different climate conditions.
The incidence rate of COVID-19 is increasing at an alarming pace within
subtropical Southeast Asian nations with high temperatures and humidity.
To understand this spread, we analyzed 60 genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2
available in GISAID platform from 6 Southeast Asian countries. Multiple
sequence alignments and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses were
performed to analyze and characterize the non-synonymous mutant variants
circulating in this region. Global mutation distribution analysis showed
that the majority of the mutations found in this region are also
prevalent in Europe and North America, and the concurrent presence of
these mutations at a high frequency in Australia and Saudi Arabia
indicate possible transmission routes. Unique spike protein and
non-structural protein mutations were observed circulating within a
localized area. We divided the circulating viral strains into 4 major
groups and 2 sub-groups on the basis of the most frequent non-synonymous
mutations. Strains with a unique set of 4 co-evolving mutations were
found to be circulating at a high frequency within India, specifically,
group 2 strains characterized by two co-evolving NS mutants which alter
in RdRp (P323L) and spike protein (D614G) common in Europe and North
America. These European and North American variants (Nextstrain clade
A2) have rapidly emerged as dominant strains within Southeast Asia,
increasing from a 0% presence in January to an 85% presence by May
2020. These variants may have an evolutionary advantage over their
ancestral types and could present the largest threat to Southeast Asia
for the coming winter.