Abstract
Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was
conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a
result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The annual probability of
ASF entering Japan was calculated to be 23% (90% prediction interval:
0-91%), 4.7% (0-24%) in February, 0.4% (0-2.1%) in March and
0.004% (0-0.01%) in April 2020 indicating a significant decline in the
risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a
decline in the number of air travelers from China and amount of
restaurant food.