Quantifying the ice storage in the Upper Indus River basin with the
ground-penetrating radar measurements and Glacier Bed Topography version
2 modeling
Abstract
Ice reserve estimates is a fundamental prerequisite for the water
resources management, the upper Indus river basin (UIB) possesses the
most abundant mid-latitude ice resources outside the poles. However, the
ice reserve estimates remain unclear due to limited accessibility. We
validated the critical parameters of the GlabTop2 model through
ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measured ice thickness, compared the
plots and profiles of the GPR-measured ice bed elevation versus
GlabTop2-estimated results, integrated with GlabTop, Volta model, and
the inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolated results on various
sized glaciers, a reasonable parametric scheme (τ =120 kPa and f = 0.8)
of GlabTop2 was selected to apply on vast amounts of glaciers in the UIB
region. GlabTop2 estimates indicated that the ice thickness of the UIB
was varying from 0 to 488.1 m, with an average value of 74.4 m.
Significant spatial heterogeneity exists in the sub-basins, Shyok,
Shigar, and Hunza high-altitude sub-catchments own the most abundant ice
reserve, less quantity was stored in the Western Himalaya and Hindukush
ranges, which accounts for a small proportion (11.3% and 6.9%,
respectively). A total of 1269.7 km3 ice volume can be converted to
1142.7 km3 water resources, and it can supply at least 16.1 y for the
Besham hydrological station as runoff without considering the glacier
process and other variables. The UIB relies on the glacier melting of
the midstream because they are keeping in a self-sufficient state, in
contrast, it will be up against water shortage in the future evenly,
especially for the upper reaches and downstream area. Our estimates will
provide the baseline information for water resources planning and
management of the Indus river.