Parameterizing a hydrological model using a short-term observational
data set to study runoff generation processes and reproduce recent
trends in streamflow at a remote mountainous permafrost basin
Abstract
Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the
Suntar River in Eastern Siberia. This study attempts to attribute these
changed hydrological conditions through parameterizing a hydrological
model based on historical short-term observations conducted in 1957-1959
at the Suntar-Khayata research station. The Hydrograph model is applied
as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of
landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the
goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results
of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with
observations carried out in 1957-1959. Continuous simulations of
streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957-2012
in the Suntar River (area 7680 km2, altitude 828-2794 m) with mean and
median values of Nash-Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67
respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest
component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area
which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated
streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes,
including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the
proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise
is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The
data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of
North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in global climate
system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model
based on observations rather than blind calibration allows the model to
be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with
greater confidence.