A prospective cohort study comparing two predictor models for 30-day
emergency readmission in the elderly.
Abstract
Aim: To undertake a prospective study of the efficacy of two models
(LACE and BOOST) in predicting unplanned hospital readmission. Methods:
Data were collected from a single centre prospectively over a continuous
30-day period on all patients over 75 years old admitted to the acute
medical unit. The primary outcome was the area under the curve for both
models. Results: Area under the curve were calculated for both tools
with BOOST score 0.667 (95% CI: 0.559-0.775, p=0.005) and C-statistic
for LACE index 0.685 (95% CI: 0.579-0.792, p=0.002). Conclusion: In
this prospective study, both the BOOST and LACE scores were found to be
significant predictive models of hospital readmission. Recent
hospitalisation was found to be the most significant contributing
factor. Key Words: Elderly, prediction, readmission
, 
