Development of Fire and Explosion Risk Assessment on Coal Reclaim Tunnel
Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Matrix Method
Abstract
The comprehensive fire and explosion risk assessment has been studied
for Coal Reclaim Tunnel (CRT) facility by applying the Monte Carlo
simulation method. In this research, the fire and explosion risk of two
existing CRT, namely model A and model B, have been assessed. A set of
30 data for each factor has been used to define the statistical
distribution model, sourced from historical data, field measurement, and
laboratory experiments. Based on the simulation, CRT model A has a 100%
extreme risk group, while model B has two risk groups, high risk=81.73%
and moderate risk=18.27%, classified as a not acceptable risk. Several
preventive actions were set to reduce the probability and severity level
as low as reasonably possible, especially for the controllable factors.
Furthermore, the probability and severity levels were re-adjusted by the
Monte Carlo simulation. The result shows that both the CRT model have
been grouped into a 100% moderate-risk group. For optimal prevention
against explosion risk, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out to
find the most influential factors for the fire and explosion risk in
CRT. Through this research, a method for risk matrix assessment related
to the fire and explosion in the CRT facility has been developed.