An SVEICRD model for assessing the impact of the lock-down intervention
and vaccination strategies on the spread of COVID-19
Abstract
In this research, we aim to forecast the trajectory of the COVID-19
pandemic in terms of the number of exposed, infected, vaccinated,
hospitalized, recovered, and dead people, and observe the effects of
different vaccination strategies on the spread of the COVID-19. We
simulate the ongoing trajectory of the outbreak in three countries,
namely, Canada, the UK, and Israel using the susceptible - vaccinated -
exposed - infected - critical - recovered - dead (SVEICRD) model. We
consider two vaccination strategies and investigate their effects on the
number of exposed and death cases. We perform an extensive numerical
study to assess the implications of different strategies and spread
scenarios. Our findings confirm that the fourth wave has begun in all
three countries, and already reached its peak. We observe that starting
second dose vaccination as early as possible is the most effective in
mitigating the spread of COVID-19, although it does require more
vaccination supply than the alternative strategies. Our results show
that the SVEICRD model successfully forecasts the changing number of
people in each compartment and the vaccination strategy significantly
impacts the trajectory of the outbreak.