Comparison of Bayesian quantile and frequency-oriented regressions in
studying the trend of discharge changes in several hydrometric stations
of Gorganroud basin in Iran.
Abstract
Climate change causes fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. As
a result, it affects the discharge of rivers, the most important
consequence of which is the tendency toward extreme events such as
torrential rains and widespread droughts. River discharge is one of the
most important climatic and hydrological parameters. Investigating the
changes in this parameter is one of the main prerequisites in the
management and proper use of water resources and rivers. Most trend
detection studies are based on analyzing changes in the mean or middle
of the data. They do not provide information on how changes occur in
different data ranges. Therefore, to investigate parameter changes in a
different range of the data series, various regression models were
proposed. Frequentist quantile regression and Bayesian quantile
regression models were used to estimate their trend and trend slope in
different quantiles of discharge in different seasons of the year for
Arazkouseh, Tamar, and Galikesh stations of Gorganroud basin in northern
Iran with the statistical period of 1346–1396 (1966–2016). The results
show that in most seasons of the year, high discharge rates for all 3
stations have decreased with a steep slope, and only in summer, Tamar
and Galikesh stations have had an increasing trend, but low discharge
rates have not changed significantly. Spatially, the discharge values at
Arazkouseh station have a decreasing trend with a higher slope rate, and
in terms of time, the most decreasing trend has been in spring.
Comparing the models also shows that the Bayesian quantile regression
model provides more accurate and reliable results than the
frequency-oriented quantile regression model. In general, quantile
regression models are useful for predicting and estimating extreme high
and low discharge changes for better management to reduce flood and
drought damage.