A nomogram for Antenatal Estimation of Cephalopelvic Disproportion in
Primiparous Women based on MRI Measurements
Abstract
Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model assessing the risk
of cesarean delivery in primiparous women based on the findings of
magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies. Design: Observational study
Setting: University teaching hospital. Population: 168 primiparous women
with clinical findings suggestive of cephalopelvic disproportion.
Methods: All women underwent MRI measurements prior to the onset of
labor. A nomogram model to predict the risk of cesarean delivery was
proposed based on the MRI data. The discrimination of the model was
calculated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
(AUC) and calibration was assessed by calibration plots. The decision
curve analysis was applied to evaluate the net clinical benefit. Main
Outcome Measures: Cesarean delivery. Results: A total of 88 (58.7%)
women achieved vaginal delivery, and 62 (41.3%) required cesarean
section caused by obstructed labor. In multivariable modeling, the
maternal body mass index before delivery, induction of labor, bilateral
femoral head distance, obstetric conjugate, fetal head circumference and
fetal abdominal circumference were significantly associated with the
likelihood of cesarean delivery. The discrimination calculated as the
AUC was 0.845 (95% CI: 0.783-0.908; P < 0.001). The
sensitivity and specificity of the nomogram model were 0.918 and 0.629,
respectively. The model demonstrated satisfactory calibration. Moreover,
the decision curve analysis proved the superior net benefit of the model
compared with each factor included. Conclusion: Our study provides a
nomogram model that can accurately identify primiparous women at risk of
cesarean delivery caused by cephalopelvic disproportion based on the MRI
measurements.