Evidence of climate-driven selection on both tree traits and trait
plasticity across the climatic range of a riparian foundation species
Abstract
Selection on quantitative traits by divergent climatic conditions can
lead to substantial trait variation across a species range. In the
context of rapidly changing environments, however, it is equally
important to understand selection on trait plasticity. To evaluate the
role of selection in driving divergences in traits and their associated
plasticity within a widespread species, we compared molecular and
quantitative trait variation in Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood)
populations throughout Arizona. Using SNP data and genotypes from 16
populations reciprocally planted in three common gardens, we first
performed QST-FST analyses to detect selection on traits and trait
plasticity. We then explored the mechanistic basis of selection using
trait-climate and plasticity-climate regressions. Three major findings
emerged: 1) There was significant genetic variation in traits expressed
in each of the common gardens and in the phenotypic plasticity of traits
across gardens. 2) Based on QST-FST comparisons, there was evidence of
selection in all traits measured; however, this result varied from no
effect in one garden to highly significant in another, indicating that
detection of past selection is environmentally dependent. We also found
strong evidence of divergent selection on plasticity across environments
for two traits. 3) Traits and/or their plasticity were often correlated
with population source climate (R2 up to 0.77 and 0.66, respectively).
This suggests that steep climate gradients across the Southwest have
played a major role in shaping the evolution of divergent phenotypic
responses in populations and genotypes now experiencing climate change.