Abstract
Lifespan is a key attribute of a species’ life cycle and varies
extensively among major lineages of animals. In fish, lifespan varies by
several orders of magnitude, with reported values ranging from less than
one year to approximately 400 years. Lifespan information is
particularly useful for species management, as it can be used to
estimate invasion potential, extinction risk and sustainable harvest
rates. Despite its utility, lifespan is unknown for most fish species.
This is due to the difficulties associated with accurately identifying
the oldest individual(s) of a given species, and/or deriving lifespan
estimates that are representative for an entire species. Recently it has
been shown that CpG density in gene promoter regions can be used to
predict lifespan in mammals and other vertebrates, with variable
accuracy across taxa. To improve accuracy of lifespan prediction in a
non-mammalian vertebrate, here we develop a fish-specific genomic
lifespan predictor. Addressing previous issues of low sample size and
sequence dissimilarity, we incorporate more than eight times the number
of fish species used previously (n = 442) and use fish-specific gene
promoters as reference sequences. Our model predicts fish lifespan from
genomic CpG density alone (measured as CpG observed/expected ratio),
explaining 64 % of the variance between known and predicted lifespans.
The results demonstrate the value of promoter CpG density as a universal
predictor of fish lifespan that can applied where empirical data are
unavailable, or impracticable to obtain.