Abstract
Aim: Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is
of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the
coastal environment, large Laminarian algae – kelps – form key coastal
ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps,
Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed
habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This
study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional
changes on a global scale and use them to predict both future habitat
suitability. Location: Global Methods: Using species distribution models
(SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M.
pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the
Southeastern Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations
to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution
across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables
and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Results: Minimum
sea surface temperature was the single most important variable
explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M.
pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed
a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was
detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast
Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08°S of latitude
for 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat
suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83°S in
Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is
predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation.
Main conclusions: The loss of habitat suitability will take place
worldwide: significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem
functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are
a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the
Southeastern Pacific.