Analyzing the European countries' SARS-CoV-2 policies via Bayesian deep
learning and statistical inference
Abstract
Even when the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic recedes, evidence-based researches
regarding the effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical
government interventions (NPIs) remain important. In this study,
SARS-CoV-2 data of 30 European countries from early 2020 up to mid 2022
are analyzed using Bayesian machine learning. Four data sources
containing each country’s daily NPIs (consisting of 66 government
measures, virus variant distributions of 31 virus types, the vaccinated
population percentages by the first five doses as well as the reported
daily infections in each country) are brought together to undertake a
comprehensive assessment of the impact of SARS-CoV-2 influential factors
on the spread of the virus. First, a Bayesian deep learning model is
constructed with a set of input factors to predict the growth rate of
the virus one month ahead of the time from each day. Based on this, the
importance and the marginal effect of each relevant influencing input
factor on the predicted outcome of the neural network model is computed
by applying the relevant algorithms. Subsequently, in order to examine
the performed deep learning analysis, a Bayesian statistical inference
analysis is performed within each country’s data. For each influencing
input factor, the distribution of pandemic growth rates, in the days
where the selected explanatory factor has been active, is compared with
the distribution of the pandemic growth rates, in the days where the
selected explanatory variable has not been active. The results of the
statistical inference confirm the predictions of the deep learning model
to a significant extent. Similar conclusions from the SARS-CoV-2
experiences of the thirty studied European countries have been drawn.