Supercritical and homogenous transmission of monkeypox in the capital of
China.
Abstract
Background: Starting from May 31 st, 2023,
the local transmission of monkeypox (Mpox) in mainland China began in
Beijing. Till now, the transmission characteristics have not been
explored. Method: Based on the daily Mpox incidence data in the
first three weeks of Beijing (from May 31 st to June
21 st, 2023) , we employed the instant-individual
heterogeneity transmission model to simultaneously calculate the
effective reproduction number ( R e) and the
degree of heterogeneity ( k) of the Beijing epidemic. We
additionally simulated the monthly infection size in Beijing from July
to September and compared with the reported data to project subsequent
transmission dynamics. Results: We estimated R
e to be 1.68 [95% HPD:1.12, 2.41], and k to
be 2.57 [95% HPD: 0.54, 83.88], suggesting the transmission of Mpox
in Beijing was supercritical and didn’t have considerable transmission
heterogeneity. We projected that R e fell in the
range of 0.95 to 1.0 from July to September, highlighting more efforts
needed to further reduce the Mpox transmissibility. Conclusion:
Our findings revealed supercritical and homogeneous transmission of the
Mpox epidemic in Beijing. Our results may provide reference for
understanding and predicting of the on-going Mpox transmission in other
regions of China and assess the effect of control measures.