The population genetics of partial diapause, with applications to the
aestivating malaria mosquito Anopheles coluzzii
Abstract
Diapause, a form of dormancy to delay or halt the reproductive
development during unfavourable seasons, has evolved in many insect
species. One example is aestivation, a summer adult-stage diapause,
enhancing malaria vectors’ survival during the unfavourable dry season
(DS) and their re-establishment in the next rainy season (RS). This work
develops a novel genetic approach to estimate the number or proportion
of individuals undergoing diapause, as well as the breeding sizes of the
two seasons, using signals from temporal allele frequency dynamics.
Using Anopheles coluzzii as an example, our modelling shows the
magnitude of drift is dampened at early RS when previously aestivating
individuals reappear. Aestivation severely biases the temporal effective
population size (N_e), leading to overestimation of the DS breeding
size by 1/(1-α)^2 across one year, where α is the aestivating
proportion. We find sampling breeding individuals in three consecutive
seasons starting from a RS is sufficient for parameter estimation, and
perform extensive simulations to verify our derivations. This method
does not require sampling individuals in the dormant state, the biggest
challenge in most studies. We apply the method to a published An.
coluzzii dataset from Thierola, Mali, and the estimated aestivating
proportions were 39%-79%. These results will inform the development of
genetic approaches to vector control. Beyond mosquitoes, our method and
the expected evolutionary implications are applicable to any species in
which a fraction of the population diapauses for more than one
generation, and are difficult or impossible to sample during that stage.